La Liga Table & Predictor 2026/27

The clubs most at risk of dropping into the Segunda División right now are Málaga (98.9%), Racing Santander (45.5%), Getafe (37.3%), Osasuna (29.1%), Elche (21.5%), Espanyol (18.8%), Valencia (15.8%), Celta Vigo (10.7%), Levante (7.1%) and Deportivo La Coruña (6.7%). On current projections, 42 points would leave any team with less than a 5% chance of going down.

Barcelona are favourites, with a 80.2% chance of winning the league. Also in the race: Real Madrid (14.4%), Atlético Madrid (4.2%) and Real Betis (1.1%). The champions should finish on about 90 points.

The top four qualify for the Champions League. The best chances right now belong to Barcelona (>99.9%), Real Madrid (96.8%), Atlético Madrid (88.2%), Real Betis (65.5%), Villarreal (27.2%) and Real Sociedad (10.8%).

The model rates every team on level, attack, defence and club size, based on recent results in all competitions and the quality of the opposition, and adds home advantage. That way, a few early-season results can’t turn an average side into title favourites. From those ratings it estimates how many goals each team should score in every remaining match, then plays out the rest of the season 20,000 times and counts how often each club wins the title, reaches the Champions League or goes down.

When you enter a score, it counts in every simulation and the chances update instantly. The top four qualify for the Champions League, fifth goes to the Europa League and sixth to the Conference League, while the bottom three are relegated to the Segunda División. European places can shift with the Copa del Rey winner and UEFA’s extra spots. Teams level on points are separated by head-to-head first, then goal difference, then goals scored.

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Barcelona lead La Liga on 21 points from 7 games, ahead of Atlético Madrid (16) and Real Betis (16). Elche (5), Valencia (4) and Málaga (3) are in the relegation places.

It plays out the 311 remaining La Liga 2026/27 matches 20,000 times. In each simulation, goals are drawn from each team’s strength (level, attack, defence and club size, measured from recent results against opponents of every standard) plus home advantage. A club’s title or relegation chance is the share of simulations in which it happens.

On the current simulation, Barcelona are favourites with a 80.2% chance of the title. Real Madrid (14.4%), Atlético Madrid (4.2%) and Real Betis (1.1%) are also in contention.

The three clubs most likely to go down automatically right now are Málaga (98.9%), Racing Santander (45.5%) and Getafe (37.3%).

On the current simulation, a team finishing on 42 points has less than a 5% chance of relegation. The most likely points total for the 17th-placed team, the last one above the drop zone, is 39.

The simulation projects the champions to finish on about 90 points, most likely between 83 and 97.

The clubs most likely to finish in the top four, and qualify for the Champions League, are Barcelona (>99.9%), Real Madrid (96.8%), Atlético Madrid (88.2%), Real Betis (65.5%), Villarreal (27.2%) and Real Sociedad (10.8%).

Yes. Tap Share to create an image of your final table, dated and with a link to the predictor. The link keeps your scores until the next match finishes.