Bundesliga Table & Predictor 2026/27

The clubs most at risk of dropping into the 2. Bundesliga right now are Paderborn (68.4%), Union Berlin (41.3%), Borussia Mönchengladbach (30.7%), Schalke 04 (28.4%), Hamburger SV (14.6%), Elversberg (5.8%) and Köln (5.6%). On current projections, 34 points would leave any team with less than a 5% chance of going down. The team in 16th goes into a relegation play-off.

Borussia Dortmund are favourites, with a 45.8% chance of winning the league. Also in the race: Bayern Munich (36.3%), Bayer Leverkusen (8.9%), RB Leipzig (4.6%), Freiburg (1.7%) and VfB Stuttgart (1.3%). The champions should finish on about 74 points.

The top four qualify for the Champions League. The best chances right now belong to Borussia Dortmund (93.7%), Bayern Munich (91.4%), Bayer Leverkusen (65.5%), RB Leipzig (49.8%), VfB Stuttgart (28.8%), Freiburg (28.7%) and Mainz (14.0%).

The model rates every team on level, attack, defence and club size, based on recent results in all competitions and the quality of the opposition, and adds home advantage. That way, a few early-season results can’t turn an average side into title favourites. From those ratings it estimates how many goals each team should score in every remaining match, then plays out the rest of the season 20,000 times and counts how often each club wins the title, reaches the Champions League or goes down.

When you enter a score, it counts in every simulation and the chances update instantly. The top four qualify for the Champions League, fifth goes to the Europa League and sixth to the Conference League. The team in 16th plays a relegation play-off against the third-placed side in the 2. Bundesliga, and the bottom two go down automatically. European places can shift with the DFB-Pokal winner and UEFA’s extra spots. Teams level on points are separated by goal difference, then goals scored, then head-to-head.

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Borussia Dortmund lead the Bundesliga on 12 points from 4 games, ahead of Bayern Munich (10) and Freiburg (10). Union Berlin (1) and Borussia Mönchengladbach (0) are in the automatic relegation places.

It plays out the 270 remaining Bundesliga 2026/27 matches 20,000 times. In each simulation, goals are drawn from each team’s strength (level, attack, defence and club size, measured from recent results against opponents of every standard) plus home advantage. A club’s title or relegation chance is the share of simulations in which it happens.

On the current simulation, Borussia Dortmund are favourites with a 45.8% chance of the title. Bayern Munich (36.3%), Bayer Leverkusen (8.9%), RB Leipzig (4.6%), Freiburg (1.7%) and VfB Stuttgart (1.3%) are also in contention.

The two clubs most likely to go down automatically right now are Paderborn (68.4%) and Union Berlin (41.3%).

On the current simulation, a team finishing on 34 points has less than a 5% chance of relegation. The most likely points total for the 16th-placed team, the last one clear of automatic relegation (it goes into the play-off), is 31.

The simulation projects the champions to finish on about 74 points, most likely between 68 and 80.

The clubs most likely to finish in the top four, and qualify for the Champions League, are Borussia Dortmund (93.7%), Bayern Munich (91.4%), Bayer Leverkusen (65.5%), RB Leipzig (49.8%), VfB Stuttgart (28.8%) and Freiburg (28.7%).

Yes. Tap Share to create an image of your final table, dated and with a link to the predictor. The link keeps your scores until the next match finishes.