Premier League Table Predictor 2026/27

The clubs most at risk of dropping into the Championship right now are Coventry City (91.2%), Hull City (71.0%), Tottenham (49.7%), Fulham (31.6%), Ipswich Town (21.2%), Sunderland (14.6%) and Nottingham Forest (5.9%). On current projections, 43 points would leave any team with less than a 5% chance of going down.

Manchester City are favourites, with a 58.9% chance of winning the league. Also in the race: Arsenal (23.7%), Brighton (7.1%), Liverpool (3.0%), Brentford (2.4%) and Manchester United (2.0%). The champions should finish on about 78 points.

The top four qualify for the Champions League. The best chances right now belong to Manchester City (94.7%), Arsenal (82.3%), Brighton (56.5%), Liverpool (33.8%), Brentford (30.6%), Manchester United (29.5%) and Chelsea (16.9%).

The model rates every team on level, attack, defence and club size, based on recent results in all competitions and the quality of the opposition, and adds home advantage. That way, a few early-season results can’t turn an average side into title favourites. From those ratings it estimates how many goals each team should score in every remaining match, then plays out the rest of the season 20,000 times and counts how often each club wins the title, reaches the Champions League or goes down.

When you enter a score, it counts in every simulation and the chances update instantly. The top four qualify for the Champions League, fifth goes to the Europa League and sixth to the Conference League, while the bottom three are relegated to the Championship. European places can shift with the FA Cup and League Cup winners and with UEFA’s extra Champions League spots. Teams level on points are separated by goal difference, then goals scored, then head-to-head.

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Manchester City lead the Premier League on 15 points from 5 games, ahead of Arsenal (12) and Brighton (10). Coventry City (3), Fulham (2) and Tottenham (2) are in the relegation places.

It plays out the 330 remaining Premier League 2026/27 matches 20,000 times. In each simulation, goals are drawn from each team’s strength (level, attack, defence and club size, measured from recent results against opponents of every standard) plus home advantage. A club’s title or relegation chance is the share of simulations in which it happens.

On the current simulation, Manchester City are favourites with a 58.9% chance of the title. Arsenal (23.7%), Brighton (7.1%), Liverpool (3.0%), Brentford (2.4%) and Manchester United (2.0%) are also in contention.

The three clubs most likely to go down automatically right now are Coventry City (91.2%), Hull City (71.0%) and Tottenham (49.7%).

On the current simulation, a team finishing on 43 points has less than a 5% chance of relegation. The most likely points total for the 17th-placed team, the last one above the drop zone, is 40.

The simulation projects the champions to finish on about 78 points, most likely between 72 and 86.

The clubs most likely to finish in the top four, and qualify for the Champions League, are Manchester City (94.7%), Arsenal (82.3%), Brighton (56.5%), Liverpool (33.8%), Brentford (30.6%) and Manchester United (29.5%).

Yes. Tap Share to create an image of your final table, dated and with a link to the predictor. The link keeps your scores until the next match finishes.